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But - as the banking industry testfies so graphically - overconfidence in one’s ability can lead to disaster. Malcolm Gladwell’s piece in The New Yorker examines the ‘Psychology of Overconfidence’ and how bankers are prone to it. He concludes -
 
“because ability makes a difference in competitions of skill, we make the mistake of thinking that it must also make a difference in competitions of pure chance … As novices, we don’t trust our judgment. Then we have some success, and begin to feel a little surer of ourselves. Finally, we get to the top of our game and succumb to the trap of thinking that there’s nothing we can’t master. As we get older and more experienced, we overestimate the accuracy of our judgments, especially when the task before us is difficult and when we’re involved with something of great personal importance”
 
Which for many of us is a little disconcerting. But a bit of humility is no bad thing, certainly when the financial health of the country is at stake.
 
 
 
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